It is not Kenyans that will decide who the next president shall be; it is the system and a few votes. Mt Kenya is already dying from the Ruto phobia. Ruto is certainly under siege. With census and referendum on our card, things are not going to be EASY. As we await the release of the Building Bridges Initiative report for a far-reaching constitutional amendments that could require a referendum, Ruto’s owes continue escalating. The national census is increasingly a politicized event. The referendum out of the BBI is likely to be a Ruto-Raila duel – a loud, noisy, raucous and divisive prequel to 2022 elections. In Kenya, census is not just about counting people, cows, goats, sheep and huts but a competition between regions that and ethnic groups for the numbers that then determine the political equation and access to national resources. Both the BBI and the census will be heavily political. Uhuru is busy crafting a legacy along his so-called Big Four Agenda but he will certainly need to fight hard to maintain relevance especially where his own Mt Kenya allies are busy trying to secure their political future in East, West, South and North directions. Murathe, Tuju etc are system’s mouth pieces. What they are saying regarding Ruto and 2022 is what the system is already handling. Moses Kuria’s assertions are nothing but the hot jitters in the Jubilee Party House. As we move on, only time shall tell who the real Simba between Ruto and Raila shall be. Ruto brought to himself his present predicament. How? The Kikuyu nation gave Ruto three tests which he failed and nailed his own coffin. One was being given an opportunity to oversee Jubilee Party nominations. When he proceeded to uproot their strong sons and daughters and replace them with novices in Central Kenya he became a marked man. The second one was being given a chance to nominate 50% of the cabinet. When he proceeded to nominate only his people while Uhuru shared with other Kenyans, his leadership value system came under scrutiny. The third, which he swallowed hook, line and sinker was when he took a confrontational mien against the handshake and rubbished referendum talks even before he had taken time to understand the content. To him, Raila had come to snatch that which was his for the taking and he was not going to sit back and see it go. He seems to have abandoned his boss to struggle with BIG FOUR as he himself goes into high gear campaign. The worst mistake was using his lieutenants to apply pressure on Uhuru and Central Kenya to state their position on 2022. When he sensed that he might not get the Central Kenya vote, he made forays into Western, looking for every excuse to attend anything that looked like a gathering. Even the cultural bullfighting has not been spared. When he sensed Musalia and Western leaders are building a formidable force and working closely with Gideon in Rift Valley and Central Kenya, Coast and Nyanza, he then begun throwing jibes at Musalia through proxies, jibes that have not washed.
According to me, DP Ruto has dimmed his own star and should start rethinking his role in Kenya’s politics in the days ahead. It is difficult to initiate such battlefronts and win a presidential election.


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